!!! จับตาพายุลูกใหม่ ที่กำลังก่อตัว ณ ขณะนี้ !!!

ไม่แน่ใจว่า รูปนี้หมายถึงว่า NalGae นาลแก กับ NeSat เนสาด มีโอกาสจะรวมตัวเป็นลูกเดียวกัน? (ไม่แน่ใจ)

 

for Wednesday, 28 September 2011 [8:30 AM PhT]



<hr noshade="noshade"><<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
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Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
<hr noshade="noshade">NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks <hr noshade="noshade">
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 29 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade"> The small but tenacious Tropical Storm NALGAE (a Korean word for "wing") over the Western Pacific Ocean - has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), now locally known as QUIEL...tracking west to west-southwestward during the past 12 hours. Initial Forecast Projection shows a passage across the shores of Extreme Northern Luzon on Sunday.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu September 29 2011
Location of Center: 18.5º N Lat 134.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 1339 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 1351 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1360 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1367 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1502 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Thu Sep 29​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward with increasing forecast speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will traverse the shores of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte on Sunday, Oct 02.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours...and NALGAE could become a Typhoon later today. This cyclone is a Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. NESAT is now an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves west across the North Philippine Sea [2AM SEP 30: 18.4N 131.7E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching Category 2 strength as it accelerates towards Extreme Northern Luzon [2AM OCT 01: 18.5N 127.9E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon...approaching the coast of Northern Cagayan...about 211 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM OCT 02: 18.5 123.6E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation has increased in size as it barrels westward across the North Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


<hr noshade="noshade"> External Links for TS NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

[FONT=Verdana][SIZE=1] [/SIZE][/FONT]______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:


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Orange alert for Tropical Cyclone NESAT-11 for Philippines,Vietnam, China

<table style="line-height: 17px; " width="100%"><tbody style="line-height: 17px; "><tr style="line-height: 17px; "><td style="line-height: 17px; " valign="top">

Click for an interactive map
Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); shaded area is uncertainty cone of forecasted cyclone path.

Legend: areas affected by potential rainfall accumulation > 50mm/24hr (NASA TRMM real-time rainfall product). Rainfall > 90mm/24h are in red (source: NASA TRMM)
​

Alert level: orange for Philippines,Vietnam, China

This tropical cyclone can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.
In particular Philippines,Vietnam, China are affected by high winds up to 194km/h (54 m/s or 120mph).
Current storm status

Analysis based on advisory number 23 for NESAT-11, published on 9/29/2011 00:00 UTC

• The storm is: active
• Current country: China
• Current position: 112.79, 19.2
• Alert level at current position: orange
• Basin: NWPacific
• Current strength: Cyclone with Saffir Simpson category 1
• Current maximum sustained wind speed: 33 m/s, 65 kt

GDACS report created on 9/29/2011 5:43:19 AM.
For a more complete report, please go to GDACS impact assessment: Tropical cyclone alert.
</td></tr></tbody></table>Summary impact analysis

The following analysis considers the forecasted track from the current position and the area affected by winds of at least Category 1 (>119 km/h). For a report on the cyclone's impact along the whole track, please see the full report.
No population affected by Category I wind strengths (>74 mph).

For more details on rainfall, please go to the full report on the GDACS websiteLogistics information

Below is a list of airports that are selected according to their suitability for cargo plane landing. The criteria considered are runway paving and length (source: Aircraft Charter World). Always check runway conditions beforehand.
For details on cargo facilities and other facilities of these airports, please check http://www.azworldairports.com. Click on the IATA code for details on airlines serving an airport.
No airports found nearby with paved runways over 8000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)
No airports found nearby with paved runways between 8000 and 4000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
<table style="line-height: 17px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; " border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody style="line-height: 17px; "><tr style="line-height: 17px; "><td style="line-height: 17px; border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-width: medium; border-right-width: medium; border-bottom-width: medium; border-left-width: medium; " valign="top"></td><td style="line-height: 17px; border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-width: medium; border-right-width: medium; border-bottom-width: medium; border-left-width: medium; " valign="top">Information related to the track has been collected from official bulletins distributed by regional tropical cyclones monitoring authorities by the Pacific Disaster Center. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research Center of the European </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

for Friday, 30 September 2011 [6:30 AM PhT]



<hr noshade="noshade"><<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on QUIEL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
<hr noshade="noshade">NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks <hr noshade="noshade">
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 30 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade"> Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) intensifying over the Philippine Sea as it maintains its westerly to a slight WSW motion...now endangers Northern Luzon. Landfall is now expected along Palanan-Divilacan Bay in less than 36 hours.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela...passing over/near Divilacan-Palanan Bay at approx 2-4 PM local time Saturday.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri September 30 2011
Location of Eye: 17.6º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 795 km East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 786 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 800 km ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 4: 808 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 771 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 912 km ESE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 932 km East of Vigan City
Distance 8: 937 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WEST-WSW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Fri Sep 30​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") w/ a slight dig to the south throughout the forecast period...little change in its forward speed in anticipated. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall along Palanan-Divilacan Bay in Isabela Saturday afternoon...and cross Northern Luzon through the evening...passing over the same provinces being previously hit by NESAT (PEDRING). NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via La Union-Ilocos Sur Area Sunday early morning...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, prior in making landfall over Northern Luzon...and NALGAE could become a Category 3 Typhoon Saturday noon. This cyclone is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon...approaching the shores of Isabela-Southern Cagayan [2AM OCT 01: 17.5N 125.2E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of La Union-Ilocos Sur...weakens rapidly after crossing Northern Luzon [2AM OCT 02: 17.1N 120.5E @ 150kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the middle of the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM OCT 03: 17.2N 115.7E @ 130kph].

NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

EASTERN ISABELA: Passing over/near Divilacan-Palanan Bay...[ETA: 2:00-4:00 PM Local Time, Saturday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation improving with a possible small eye. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...however its western outer rainbands will reach Cagayan, Isabela & Northern Aurora on Saturday. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon beginning Saturday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) tagging along to the south of NALGAE...near Palau...east of Mindanao. Its weak center was located about 1170 km ESE of Surigao City (8.0N 136.0E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and remains almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is LOW (20%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


<hr noshade="noshade"> PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


<hr noshade="noshade"> External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

[FONT=Arial][FONT=Verdana][SIZE=1] [/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:



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______________________________<wbr>____________________​

 

เนสาด



NALGAE

 

for Friday, 30 September 2011 [1:22 PM PhT]



<hr noshade="noshade"><<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on QUIEL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
<hr noshade="noshade">NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks<hr noshade="noshade">
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 30 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) continues its westward track across the North Philippine Sea...seriously threatens Cagayan & Isabela Provinces. Landfall is now expected along Isabela-Cagayan Border in 24 hours.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Along Cagayan-Isabela Border...just north of Divilacan Bay at approx 12-2 PM local time Saturday.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri September 30 2011
Location of Eye: 17.8º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 646 km East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 640 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 655 km ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 4: 648 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 632 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 763 km ESE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 784 km East of Vigan City
Distance 8: 799 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Isabela Area
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Fri Sep 30​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with some increase in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall along Cagayan-Isabela Border Saturday Noon or afternoon...and cross Northern Luzon through the evening. NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via Ilocos Sur Sunday early morning...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday afternoon. By Monday, NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way towards Hainan Island, Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, prior in making landfall over Northern Luzon...and NALGAE could become a Category 3 Typhoon late tonight or early Saturday. This cyclone is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon...approaching the shores of Isabela-Cagayan...191 km East of Tuguegarao City [8AM OCT 01: 17.5N 123.5E @ 205kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Moving into the West Philippine Sea, after crossing Northern Luzon...203 km ESE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM OCT 02: 17.4N 118.5E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards Southern China [8AM OCT 03: 17.8N 114.5E @ 130kph].

NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

ISABELA-CAGAYAN BORDER: Passing over the boundary...[ETA: 12:00-2:00 PM Local Time, Saturday].
ILOCOS SUR: Passing near Vigan City [ETA: 10:00-11:00 PM Saturday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation improving with a small, pin-hole eye emerging on satellite imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will approach the coastal areas of Isabela & Cagayan Saturday morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...however its western outer rainbands will reach Cagayan, Isabela & Northern Aurora later tonight. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon beginning tonight or early Saturday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) tagging along to the south of NALGAE...near Palau...east of Mindanao. Its weak center was located about 1170 km ESE of Surigao City (8.0N 136.0E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and remains almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is LOW (20%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


<hr noshade="noshade">PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings SignalsPHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CAGAYAN AND ISABELA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning Saturday (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES, AND ABRA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning late tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


<hr noshade="noshade">External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:


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​

 

for Saturday, 01 October 2011 [1:15 PM PhT]



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Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 01 2011):

Now issuing hourly or 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).

NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: Click Here To View
<hr noshade="noshade">NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks <hr noshade="noshade">
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade"> NALGAE (QUIEL) losing strength as it traverses Northern Luzon...now moving across Ifugao...will pass north of Baguio City before Sunset. Typhoon Conditions still being felt across the Cordilleras.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Eye: 16.7º N Lat 121.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 11 km WNW of Santiago, Isabela
Distance 2: 40 km NNE of Bayombong, Nueva Vizcaya
Distance 3: 39 km SW of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 4: 70 km SSW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 92 km ENE of Baguio City
Distance 6: 46 km SE of Banaue Rice Terraces
Distance 7: 118 km ENE of San Fernando City
Distance 8: 146 km SE of Vigan City
Distance 9: 187 km SSE of Laoag City
Distance 10: 141 km NE of Dagupan City
Distance 11: 237 km North of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Ifugao-Benguet Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Oct 01​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue moving westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") during the next 24 hours...and a slight turn to the WNW w/ a decrease on its forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, the small core of the typhoon will exit Northern Luzon via La Union around Sunset...and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight. NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Hainan Island, Sunday afternoon or evening...then approaching the SE Coast of Hainan Island by Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is likely while crossing land. NALGAE is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon [8AM OCT 02: 16.9N 117.8E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves toward Hainan Island [8AM OCT 03: 17.3N 114.0E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Approaching the Southeastern Coast of Hainan Island...just barely a Typhoon [8AM OCT 04: 17.6N 110.9E @ 120kph].

NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

BENGUET: Passing north of Baguio City [ETA: 3:00-5:00 PM Today].
LA UNION: Passing north of San Fernando City [ETA: 5:00-7:00 PM Tonight].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact but intense circulation continues to display a small 9-11-km eye emerging on satellite imageries awhile ago. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:


DECAYING EYEWALL - affecting and moving into Ifugao, Northern Nueva Vizcaya & later off Benguet. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Central portions of Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, & Camarines Norte. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon particularly along La Union, Pangasinan & Ilocos Sur this afternoon through the evening.. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has tracked NNW but remains weak. Its developing center was located about 1156 km ESE of Surigao City (10.5N 135.5E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (40%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

<hr noshade="noshade"> PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: ISABELA, NORTHERN AURORA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BENGUET, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, & PANGASINAN.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, KALINGA, REST OF AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, REST OF QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, RIZAL, BATAAN, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, LUBANG ISLAND, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


<hr noshade="noshade"> External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

[FONT=Arial][FONT=Verdana][SIZE=1] [/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:



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______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

 

Orange alert for Tropical Cyclone NALGAE-11 for Philippines

<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="top">

Click for an interactive map
Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); shaded area is uncertainty cone of forecasted cyclone path.

Legend: areas affected by winds of 39mph (green), 58mph (orange) and 74mph (red); blue area is heavy rainfall >100mm/24hr (source: eTRaP)

Legend: areas affected by potential rainfall accumulation > 50mm/24hr (NASA TRMM real-time rainfall product). Rainfall > 90mm/24h are in red (source: NASA TRMM)
​

Alert level: orange for Philippines

This tropical cyclone can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.
In particular Philippines are affected by high winds up to 241km/h (67 m/s or 149mph).
Current storm status

Analysis based on advisory number 17 for NALGAE-11, published on 10/1/2011 06:00 UTC

• The storm is: active
• Current country: Philippines
• Current position: 120.79, 16.5
• Alert level at current position: orange
• Basin: NWPacific
• Current strength: Cyclone with Saffir Simpson category 3
• Current maximum sustained wind speed: 54 m/s, 105 kt

GDACS report created on 10/1/2011 11:43:33 AM.
For a more complete report, please go to http://www.gdacs.org/reports.<wbr>asp?eventType=TC&ID=26165&<wbr>system=asgard&new=true.
</td></tr></tbody></table> Summary impact analysis

The following analysis considers the forecasted track from the current position and the area affected by winds of at least Category 1 (>119 km/h). For a report on the cyclone's impact along the whole track, please see the full report.
No population affected by Category I wind strengths (>74 mph).

For more details on rainfall, please go to the full report on the GDACS website Logistics information

Below is a list of airports that are selected according to their suitability for cargo plane landing. The criteria considered are runway paving and length (source: Aircraft Charter World). Always check runway conditions beforehand.
For details on cargo facilities and other facilities of these airports, please check http://www.azworldairports.com<wbr>. Click on the IATA code for details on airlines serving an airport.
No airports found nearby with paved runways over 8000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)
No airports found nearby with paved runways between 8000 and 4000 feet (Source: Aircraft Charter World, Global Discovery)

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
<table style="border-width:0px" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="border-style:none;border-width:medium" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style:none;border-width:medium" valign="top"> Information related to the track has been collected from official bulletins distributed by regional tropical cyclones monitoring authorities by the Pacific Disaster Center. The impact analysis is performed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission.</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

for Saturday, 01 October 2011 [7:14 PM PhT]



<hr noshade="noshade"><<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on QUIEL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 01 2011):

T2K ends the hourly/3-hrly updates...resumes 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).

NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: Click Here To View
<hr noshade="noshade">NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks <hr noshade="noshade">
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade"> Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) now moving into the West Philippine Sea, after passing close to Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan. Typhoon Conditions will still occur across Pangasinan & La Union early this evening. Improving weather conditions expected after midnight.

Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 119.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 32 km West of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 92 km WNW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 92 km WSW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 118 km WSW of Baguio City
Distance 5: 123 km NNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 6: 173 km SSW of Vigan City
Distance 7: 248 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Oct 01​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue moving westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday...and will pass close to the South of Hainan Island on Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NALGAE is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTRNOON: Moving across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon...exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM OCT 02: 16.8N 116.1E @ 165kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down as it approaches the coast of Hainan Island [2PM OCT 03: 17.2N 112.5E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Passing close to the south of Hainan Island [2PM OCT 04: 17.4N 109.8E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:


DECAYING EYEWALL - affecting and moving away from La Union and Northern Pangasinan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western portions of Northern & Central Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Northern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Southern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon particularly along La Union, Pangasinan & Ilocos Sur this afternoon through the evening.. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

<hr noshade="noshade"> PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, BENGUET, & PANGASINAN.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, & PAMPANGA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, BULACAN, BATAAN, CAVITE, RIZAL, POLILLO ISLANDS, NORTHERN QUEZON, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


<hr noshade="noshade"> External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

[FONT=Arial][FONT=Verdana][SIZE=1] [/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]______________________________<wbr>______________________________<wbr>_________________

TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:



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<table border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <th class="top" colspan="5">Tropical Typhoon Windspeed Scale</th></tr> <tr><th rowspan="2">Strength</th><th rowspan="2">Category</th><th colspan="3">1 Minute Maximum Sustained Winds</th></tr> <tr><th>knots</th><th>mph</th><th>km/h</th></tr> <tr><td align="center">Tropical Depression</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#00CCFF">TD</td><td><34</td><td><39</td><td><63</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Tropical Storm</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">TS</td><td>34-63</td><td>39-73</td><td>63-118</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Typhoon Cat 1</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF00">Cat 1</td><td>64-82</td><td>74-95</td><td>119-153</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Typhoon Cat 2</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#FFCC00">Cat 2</td><td>83-95</td><td>96-110</td><td>154-177</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Typhoon Cat 4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#FF6600">Cat 3</td><td>96-113</td><td>111-130</td><td>178-210</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Typhoon Cat 4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#FF0000">Cat 4</td><td>114-135</td><td>131-155</td><td>211-250</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Super Typhoon Cat 5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#CC00CC">Cat 5</td><td>>135</td><td>>155</td><td>>250</td></tr> </tbody> </table>

 

นาลแก ออกจากฟิลิปปินส์เรียบร้อย อุตุฟิลิปปินส์เลยพยากรณ์เป็น final update


for Sunday, 02 October 2011 [7:25 PM PhT]
<hr noshade="noshade"><<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
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For more details: Text T2K HELP to
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*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation<hr noshade="noshade">Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.

NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: View Archive
<hr noshade="noshade">
NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr + Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
<hr noshade="noshade">
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013 **FINAL**
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 02 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)<hr noshade="noshade">
NALGAE (QUIEL) weakens into a Tropical Storm...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Enhanced Southwest Monsoon spreading across Palawan, Visayas, Southwestern & Southern Luzon - becoming intense along the western sections. Rains w/ thunderstorms & some squalls expected.

*This is the FINAL E-MAIL STORM UPDATES on TS NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun October 02 2011
Location of Center: 16.7º N Lat 115.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 418 km WNW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 469 km West of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 476 km WNW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 488 km WSW of Vigan City
Distance 5: 502 km WNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 594 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 618 km SE of Hainan Is., China
Distance 8: 824 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan Island-Northern Vietnam Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Final T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Oct 02​

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*


NALGAE (QUIEL) will move generally WNW...and this motion will persist throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will reach the southern coast of Hainan Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is just a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional weakening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours as it continues to move over a pool of cooler water...however, re-strengthening might happen before reaching the coast of Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). NALGAE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:


MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly while moving WNW towards Southern Hainan [2PM OCT 03: 17.1N 113.6E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-strengthens slightly as it approaches the Southern Coast of Hainan [2PM OCT 04: 17.6N 110.7E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens again as it moves into the Gulf of Tonkin...approaching Northern Vietnam [2PM OCT 05: 18.2N 108.3E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

WEAK & LOOSE EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).-->
WEAK EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon with improving sea level conditions later in the day.. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


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External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:



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NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2011 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

There is 1 active NW Pacific system as of 3 Oct, 8:48 GMT

<table class="wide" style="clear: left; width: 546px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: 10px; margin-top: 10px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; " border="1"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="2" style="text-align: center; ">
</td><th colspan="4" class="top" style="text-align: center; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 204); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; ">Current Data</th><th colspan="4" class="top" style="text-align: center; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 204); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; ">24-hr Ahead Projection</th></tr><tr><th colspan="4" style="text-align: center; ">3 Oct, 2011 8:48 GMT</th><th colspan="4" style="text-align: center; ">4 Oct, 2011 8:48 GMT</th></tr><tr><th class="top" style="text-align: center; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 204); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; " align="center">System</th><th class="top" style="text-align: center; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 204); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; " align="center">Basin</th><th style="text-align: center; ">
</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Lat</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Long</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Wind</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Cat</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Lat</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Long</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Wind</th><th style="text-align: center; ">Cat</th></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">NALGAE</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">NW Pacific</td><td style="text-align: center; ">
</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">17.5 N</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">113.8 E</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">50 kts</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">TS</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">17.9 N</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">110.6 E</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center">45 kts</td><td style="text-align: center; " align="center" bgcolor="#00FF00">TS</td></tr></tbody></table>

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